The National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC) will improve environmental predictions and help decision makers address critical policy and planning issues by extending the National predictive capability from hours and days to seasonal, annual, and decadal time periods through improved, coupled global environmental prediction. If you have questions or ideas, please contact our team!
The National Earth System Prediction Capability held an interagency workshop June 4-5, 2019, to assess the needs, current capabilities, and emerging science in the Federal enterprise for environmental prediction on the 2 to 30 year time frame. The final workshop report for Building an Interannual to Decadal Prediction and Projection Capability for Decision Support is now available.
The workshop served as a foundation for continuing information exchange leading to a unified, reliable, and actionable prediction capability, and built on the prior work of agencies involved in the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability program (USCLIVAR). Attendance consisted primarily of representatives from all Federal agencies participating in the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (FCMSSR), providing long-range predictions/projections, and using or potentially using long-range predictions/projections of the Earth system in their decision support. The workshop was organized to inform participants of identified user needs; provide overviews of present capability and research efforts; fully understand the complexities and challenges surrounding decadal prediction; understand the range of emerging capabilities and research efforts; and begin to develop an initial unified US strategy for fulfilling user needs. In each of these main categories of information, presenters outlined the scope of their work, and responded to questions from the participants. The discussions identified key challenges and possible initial steps towards cross-agency coordination for interannual to decadal prediction (2-30 years).